No one knows what all the effects will be. But one will certainly be on price; music in the new format will cost at least a little less than it did in the old. The standard charge has become 99 cents a track. Albums that cost between $12 and $18 on CD now sell for about $10 online. The labels have also authorized several services to offer a kind of online lease program for music: subscribers pay a flat $10 a month to listen to as many as half a million tracks as often as they want over the Internet, rather than storing them on a computer or burning them to a CD.
And the next months are expected to bring price wars — in both the usual and a more figurative sense of the term. As musical recordings have increasingly shed their physical form, the record industry and its customers have been at odds over what it all should cost. Music fans complain of high CD prices and copy more music illicitly than they purchase legally, while the record companies rail against the devaluation of their product and take file-sharers to court.
[...] Mike Bebel, Napster’s president, said his researchers did not even bother to test the effect of prices below 75 cents, because they would not be sustainable unless the entire industry embraced a new economic model. In practical terms, record companies would have to slash the wholesale price they charge online retailers (which at present is 70 or 80 cents a track). That would mean accepting a slimmer profit margin for online sales than for CD’s, which they currently seem intent on resisting. Beyond that, although their royalty percentage would be the same, artists would have to accept a much smaller check for each sale. Getting either party to contemplate those changes may be more of a challenge than anyone’s ready to take on.
[...] “Creating a viable online music service is less about acquisition than tapping into what makes music work on a social level,” said Mike McGuire, research director for media at GartnerG2, who has explored Napster and several of the other new services. “Once you get beyond the transaction to that place where it’s kind of magic, I think what you’re doing is ensuring future transactions.”
Another apparently valuable feature is the automated — and sometimes uncannily accurate — recommendations service that many online retailers offer. Todd Armstrong, 41, stopped buying music soon after college. But when MusicMatch came installed on a new computer, he signed up for the $4.95-a-month Internet radio service, which supplied additional suggestions based on the artists he selected. That’s how he discovered the rap artist Nas, among others.
“The real power of it is it has a good idea of what I might want,” he said. Earlier this month, the service added a feature that allows users to buy the songs they’re listening to; since its debut, Mr. Armstrong has bought 20 tracks for 99 cents each.
[...] Some of the services are moving — slowly — to add artists without record deals to their catalogs, which could ultimately signal a shift in power away from the five major labels, which control about 80 percent of the music sold in the United States.
[...] But for the time being, record executives are still seeking to protect the more reliable, more lucrative CD business, which currently accounts for almost all of its revenue. After all, some say, antipiracy, anticopying technology may be available within the year.
If that happens, the industry is likely to back away from the kind of pricing innovations with which it is now experimenting. Already, a strain is evident between record labels that want to restrict what consumers can do with the music they buy and the new on-line retailers, which argue that people won’t use their services if they can’t use it freely.
“This isn’t going to work if people don’t feel like they own the music,” said a senior executive at one of the new services, who declined to be identified because of continuing negotiations with the labels. “Doesn’t someone over there realize that? Why should people pay for it if it’s not more convenient — when they can just get it for free?”