Dynamic Strategic Planning will provide insight into decision making techniques which can be used when there is a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the options. It will draw on several well established methods used in the field of decision analysis and will apply these methods to a typical business case. The business case will involve the launch of a new venture for which decisions must be made about the business size and product prices. The purpose of the case will be to demonstrate some real world applications for decision analysis and cost estimation techniques.
In particular, the course will cover two major topics; (1)
cost estimation techniques and (2) decision analysis. Cost
estimation will focus on the use of a technique
called technical cost modeling. These are process based cost
analyses that track the individual elements of cost that arise as a
result of the physical requirements of a manufacturing process.
Decision analysis will primarily be addressed through the use of
decision trees and will include related topics such as probability
assessment (bayes theorem & likelihood ratios) and the value of
Classes will generally be divided into three segments;
lectures, problem sessions and working sessions. The lectures are
designed to introduce topics in cost assessment and decision analysis
well as to provide the students with the theoretical background needed
to evaluate their business case. Problem sessions will involve of
these techniques in order to reinforce the student's understanding of
the most relevant concepts and to ensure they are able to apply the
theories to practical situations. The working sessions will be
primarily aimed at developing the business case, and will include time
spent developing cost estimation tools and determining the most
important parameters for the decision analysis problem. There
will be a short set of questions to guide the groups through each
working session. These should be handed in to the instructor at
the end of each day and will be graded.
There are two readings that might be helpful for the students
complete before the beginning of the first class. One concerns
decision analysis and the other concerns cost
estimation and the business case.