Dynamic Strategic Planning - Course Materials
Morocco, 2001
Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics, Casablanca


Dynamic Strategic Planning/Analysis of Value -- Course Design

The "Analysis of Value" course is the first course in a two course sequence taught to students in the MIB program. The objective of the course is to introduce elements of modern decision analysis to management students, with a primary emphasis on demonstrating the utility of analytical methods for decisionmaking under uncertainty.

A key element of this course structure is that the first course is a strict prerequisite to the second course in advanced decision methods. DSP II, taught at the MIB-Paris later in the spring, which introduces multi-attribute utility, both theory and practice, and leads the students to synthesize MAUA and cost analysis into a complete dynamic strategic plan. Further analytical methods, based upon real options theory, also compose a part of the second course in this sequence.

The Casablanca-Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics course will be conducted by Frank Field of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; the second course (in Paris) will be conducted by Richard de Neufville and Joel Clark of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

A complete set of course materials will be supplied electronically, constituting all the textual material necessary for both parts of the two-course sequence. Further, we also recommend that the students have access to Applied Systems Analysis: Engineering Planning and Technology Management by Richard de Neufville. Please note that, as this book is presently out of print, the author has allowed us to prepare electronic reproductions of the appropriate chapters, which are accessible to all students in the class. We suggest that the students have reviewed (but not necessarily studied in detail) Chapters 13-19, with the expectation that the course will cover this material in greater detail.

As a course in methods, there will be substantial reliance upon computer tools, particularly spreadsheets. Please plan on using available computer facilities, and bring a laptop if you have one available -- particularly for the case study. Furthermore, there will be exercises assigned before the first class session which will be due either electronically to the instructors or on the first day of class. Thus, access to and ability to use WWW browsers will also be a requirement.

The course schedule is being significantly revamped this year, to increase the emphasis of the first course upon demonstration of analytical abilities necessary to complete the second half of the course. However, the first half of the course also stands alone as a course in methods.

The accompanying schedule outlines our plans for coverage of the course material. A more specific schedule, with detailed course coverage, will be provided the first day of class.

Please note that this page will be undergoing revision; please revisit as necessary!
(Last modifiedJan 14 2001 at 12:27:12 PM)

Analysis of Value/Dynamic Strategic Planning I - Casablanca, 2001
Draft Course Schedule -- Order Of Material To Be Covered
Subject to Revision
Pre Assignment 1 Basic Decision Trees
  1. Read Ch. 15 & Ch.16 in de Neufville's book (we strongly urge you to print out the text, rather than reading these PDFs online; your eyes will be the happier for it!)
  2. Examine PDF version of decision tree lecture
  3. Do problems 16.8 - Earthquake Protection and 16.12 - Paddy O'Toole - show all work
  4. Review Spreadsheet Sensitivity Analysis
  5. Consider TREEPLAN (an Excel® add-in; not required, however) (The TreePlan WWW page - some documentation)
  6. Do the Robustness Exercise - preferably via spreadsheet data tables - show all work
  7. Turn in materials for (c) and (f) on 29 December 2000: please put the phrase DSP#1-Pre in your subject field when you submit your assignment (so I can make sure I sort it correctly).
  8. My e-mail address is furd@mit.edu
(Please note: Completion of the pre-assignments is a prerequisite to being allowed to take this class. I will build the class list directly from the names of those who turn this in - if you are not on the list I assemble, you will NOT be allowed to take the class)
Pre Assignment 2 Cost Modeling Data collection and preparation
  1. Read the Cost Modeling Assignment (note that, in this class, the emphasis will be on COST Analysis under uncertainty)
  2. Read the COSTSKEL writeup (note: we will revisit this!)
  3. You may wish to preview the Cost Modeling Lecture materials
  4. You may wish to read the following background material; a chapter on cost modeling and issues in the area from R. Kirchain's PhD thesis on the topic
  5. DO the "Preparatory Assignment" as described in item a (i.e., this is due before the first class)
  6. Prepare and e-mail the information for item (e) no later than January 12. If you miss this deadline, you MUST supply the information in written form at the start of the first class.
 Start of Class
Thursday,
Jan 18
Topics
Assignment Completion of Cost Model Preparation - Generation of Cost/Volume Plots
Case Progress Start of class: 
Completed pre-assignment - basic business concept & data in hand
End of class:
Groupings finalized; COSTSKEL populated; analysis started
Friday,
Jan 19
Topics
Assignment Get TREE_98.XLS linked to your COSTSKEL.XLS
Make sure that the macros run correctly
Case Progress Primed to begin scenario analyses and examine decision tree results
Saturday,
Jan 20
Topics
Assignment Preparation of Final Presentation
Case Progress Basic Analyses Completed; Presentation Structure Finalized; Final Analytical Tasks Identified
Monday,
Jan 22
Topics
  • Final Presentations
  • Dynamic Strategic Planning in Practice
  • Course Wrapup, Feedback
  • Final Assignment Discussion
Assignment Preparation of a 5 page Strategy Memo outlining suggested business deployment strategies
+1 week Written report on Cost Structure of Proposed Business Risks, Opportunities, Possible Business Developments Cost Analyses and discussion of potential

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