ENGINEERING SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FOR DESIGN
  (Previous title: Dynamic Strategic Planning) 
      ESD.71, 1.146, 2.192, 3.56, 13.62, 16.861, 22.821, MIT School-Wide Elective
                  Professor Richard de Neufville and Dr. Frank R. Field
Part 1: Analysis Assuming Certainty
          Readings Slides Assignments
Sept 6 Thurs 1 Introduction to Course ASA 1 Session 63  
        Evaluation over time      
  11 Tues 2 Engineering Economy ASA 10,11,13 Session 4
Session 5
ASA 11.2, 11.7, EX 1
(Data Tables Instructions)
  13 Thurs 3 Choice of Discount Rate ASA 12 Session 7
Session 8
ASA 12.7,13.10
  18 Tues 4 Implications and Issues Handout Session 71, Session 8 Above due
               
        System Modeling      
  20 Thurs 5 Production Function ASA 2 Session 1 ASA 2.7,2.8
  25 Tues 6 Cost Fcns/ Constrained Opt. ASA 3 Session 2 ASA 3.2
  27 Thurs 7 Marginal Analysis ASA 4 Session 3 ASA 4.4, 4.17
Oct 2 Tues 8 Technical Cost Models Intro Reading Session 6a  
  4 Thurs 9 TCM Applications Handout Session 64 Above due
  9     *** Columbus Day Holiday***      
               
        Optimization       
  11 Thurs 10 Linear Programming ASA 5 Session 65 ASA 5.6; 
Special LP
  16 Tues 11 LP Sensitivity Analysis ASA 6 Session 66 ASA 6.13
  18 Thurs 12 Dynamic Programming ASA 7 Session 72 ASA 7.3
  23 Tues 13 Optimization in Practice ASA 8 Session 67 Above due
 
Part 2: Design for Uncertainty / Real Options
Oct 25 Thurs 14 Risk is the Usual Reality   Session 11
Session 73
 
  30 Tues 15 ***Quiz on Part 1***      
               
        Decision and Utility Analysis      
Nov 1 Thurs 16 Decision Analysis Basics ASA 15, 16 Session 12
Session 10
ASA 15.1, 16.2
  6 Tues 17 Value of Information ASA 17 Session 13 EX 2
  8 Thurs 18 Introduction to Value ASA 18 Session 15
Session 16
ASA 17.1,18.4
  13 Tues 19 Single Attribute Utility ASA 19 Session 17 ASA 19.8, 19.1
EX 3
               
        Real Options      
  15 Thurs 20 Basic Concepts, Calculations DSP Article Session 68, Session 75 Ex 4
  20 Tues 21 CAPM   Session 14 Due Thru Tues 19
  22     *** Thanksgiving Holiday***      
  27 Tues 22 Real Options R O Article Session 69, Session 76 Ex 5
  29 Thurs 23 Option Value by Simulation Handout Dr Sholtes I  
Dec 4 Tues 24 Option Value by Dynamic Prog   Session 70, Session 77, Dr Scholtes II, Michale Presentation Ex 6
  6 Thurs 25 Hybrid Approaches in Practice Neely Article Session 78 Ex 4 to 6 due
  11 Tues 26 Summary and Closure       
 
Week of 12th: FINAL EXAMINATION